Contrasting future lightning stories across Europe

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Thunderstorms are the most common source of hazardous weather at local scales, but poorly represented in conventional climate models, resulting high uncertainty future changes. How these changes manifest terms lightning is even more uncertain, with previous studies giving conflicting projections. Here, for first time, we use a km-scale model that explicitly resolves convection across Europe; suggesting by 2100 under RCP8.5. Our ice-based scheme indicates highly altered climatology-the consequence general increases instability, partly limited convective inhibition, along huge melting level height and less cloud ice. A northward shift favourable regimes frequency higher latitudes, favours thunderstorms over Alps, decreases lower terrain elsewhere sea. results suggest need to re-evaluate risk wildfires, properties, human life Europe.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1748-9326']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9b78